In an interview with Talk 702, Prince Mashele said that the ANC could very well lose at least two of its largest metros, but even more could fall in this years local government elections.
“We are going to see, very likely,the ANC losing one or two very big metros – Nelson Mandela Bay, I think the ANC might not get it; Tshwane, it might not get it; Johannesburg,” he said. “The party is very vulnerable this year.”
The DA launched its election campaign in Nelson Mandela Bay in September last year and the ANC is set to launch theirs there in a couple of months; a clear sign that the party is worried about losing its Eastern Cape power base.
Even Moody’s Investors Service last year warned that the ANC could lose some of its most important strongholds in this year’s elections.
The report mentioned two major drivers for the ANC’s losses:
- Increased probability that growth will remain low for a prolonged period of time due to the structural challenges facing the mining industry and other sectors of the economy; and,
- Rising risk of fiscal slippages in the face of both slower growth and increasing political pressures.
New reports show that the ruling party’s approval ratings have plummeted since 2011, especially in the country’s largest economic hub, Johannesburg.
Even Zuma admitted that the upcoming elections will be the party’s toughest yet, with the party’s electoral support shrinking from 69.7% in 2004 to 62.2% in 2014. On top of that, the party’s overall support has dwindled to just 789 000 members nationally, with their support base in Johannesburg dropping by more than 20%, the biggest slump nationally.
Overall, it’s not looking good for the ANC.