The Coega Development Corporation (CDC) Research Unit’s second Quarterly Economic Review and Outlook for 2012, has predicted a fragile economic dispensation in South Africa over the next few financial quarters.
The report, released last week, is an update covering significant features and economic information of both the world and South African economy.
Despite projections of a drop in the global oil price, the forecast for imports and exports remains bleak. However the first quarter of 2013 is expected to show an upswing, forecast the World Bank project.
“The recession has reached South African shores and will be felt in the forthcoming quarters. Both imports and exports of goods and services are expected to decline overall in 2012 compared with 2011, only showing a slight improvement in the last quarter,” said Ayanda Vilakazi, CDC head of marketing and communications.
“With global growth projected to drop from 3.9% to 3.5%, the forecast for South Africa is unsurprising. Thus far our economy has weakened from 3.2% in quarter four of 2011 to 2.7% in quarter one of 2012, mainly as a result of a mercurial primary sector and sluggish tertiary sector.”
The primary sector decline can be attributed to a drop in the value added by the mining sector which contracted by 16.8%, compared to 0.7% posted in the fourth quarter of 2011. The secondary sector grew by 6.4% in quarter one of 2012 up 2.9% on quarter 4 of 2011 as a result